The idea to use Google Trends for investment decisions is not really new and there are articles about it on the web as well as here on SA. Data provided by Google Trends can be used for investment decisions as they are available for everyone. Additionally, there is data available for almost every topic that can be searched for online (which is basically everything). But most of the articles I read so far on the topic of Google Trends and investing describe rather how to use Google Trends as a sentiment indicator. They are mostly about the stock and less about the company itself. Very often the topics discussed are about when to expect a top or a bottom and not so much about predicting future growth of the company or predicting revenue.
Instead of stock movements, we want to prognosticate revenue before quarterly earnings have been published and we use the example of Fitbit (NYSE: FIT) for our case study. In a first section we examine which companies can be analyzed by using Google Trends and why Fitbit matches these criteria and is therefore an optimal candidate. In a second part we are looking at different data from different ways to search on Google. In the last section we are going to estimate revenue for the upcoming Q4 earnings release in February (actual date is unknown so far) and maybe offer another piece of information to decide whether you should invest before earnings are released.